Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Cambridge cuts stake in MI-Reit

CAMBRIDGE Industrial Trust has pared its 9.76 per cent stake in MacarthurCook Industrial Reit (MI-Reit) to 2.73 per cent.

This came after MI-Reit got enough shareholders to approve a rescue package - a plan Cambridge had voted against. An announcement to the Singapore Exchange yesterday showed that Cambridge had sold off a substantial chunk of its stake last Tuesday, a day after the plan's go-ahead was secured at an extraordinary general meeting.

A check of the transactions that day indicates that many deals were transacted at above 30 cents. But Cambridge had bought at higher prices earlier last month, after MI-Reit announced its recapitalisation exercise. A big chunk - or 8.26 per cent - of MI-Reit was purchased at 40 cents. It subsequently increased its stake to 9.76 per cent.

Cambridge then tried to garner support to oppose the plan and said it intended to install itself as the manager.

Its plan was scuppered when the Monetary Authority of Singapore informed the trust that it was not allowed to manage both Reits.

Cambridge had said that MI-Reit's rescue plan - in which AIMS Financial Group, AMP Capital Holdings and other cornerstone investors get to buy 221.5 million new units at a hefty 70 per cent discount to the Reit's net asset value - was 'massively destructive' to value. The plan also includes a rights issue and acquisition of properties. Still, there were no other offers on the table and in the end, more than half of MI-Reit shareholders did not want it to fail.

MI-Reit has debts of $226 million due before Dec 31, plus a $90 million obligation to buy 1A International Business Park from Eurochem Corp by the same date.

The placement at 28 cents thus went ahead last Tuesday. The acquisition from Eurochem was completed yesterday.

MI-Reit declined to comment yesterday while Cambridge could not be reached for comment. MI-Reit shares closed 0.5 cent lower yesterday at 20.5 cents.

Source: Straits Times, 1 Dec 2009

Real estate attracts rich investors

They see better long-term returns from property than from stocks: survey

(EDINBURGH) Individuals with more than US$800,000 to invest plan to increase their property holdings because they foresee better long-term returns than from stocks and bonds, according to a Barclays plc global survey.

Twice as many people plan to raise their investment in commercial and residential property as intend to reduce it, the Barclays Wealth unit said in a statement yesterday.

The richer the individual, the greater the proportion of wealth is placed in real estate, the survey found.

'I was surprised how big a share of their wealth property represents,' Mike Dicks, the London-based head of research at Barclays Wealth, said in an interview. 'It's not what I would tell grandma. None of our data suggests that would be a good allocation.'

The global recession pushed down commercial and residential real estate prices in every region except Asia. The value of US shops, offices and warehouses fell 21 per cent in the first three quarters of this year, following a 12 per cent decline in 2008.

Belief that properties are now undervalued was the second most common reason cited for increasing investment.

Real estate investment among wealthy individuals is set to rise to 30 per cent of the average portfolio for the next few years from 28 per cent now, according to the survey. That excludes properties used as a principal residence.

Most rich people, other than the extremely wealthy, should have no more than 10 per cent of their assets in property, said Mr Dicks.

'An emotional attachment to bricks and mortar' can mean that rich investors are often unwilling to sell real estate at short notice and may be less rigorous in measuring its performance as an asset, according to the report.

Investors from Canada and the Persian Gulf were the most likely to increase their property allocations, with an average rise of 4 per cent, the report said.

Spain was the only country in the survey where more individuals said they would reduce the proportion of real estate investment, said the wealth management division of London-based Barclays. About 60 per cent of rich individuals in that country have more than half their assets in property.

Almost 30 per cent of British and Indian investors have more than half their wealth tied up in real estate.

About 40 per cent of the total respondents worth more than £pounds;30 million (S$68.4 million) have a similar allocation, Barclays Wealth said.

Three out of four investors surveyed said residential property is looking attractive and two-thirds are keen to explore investing in commercial real estate, the survey said. About 75 per cent said they feel hampered by borrowing costs.

The US was the most attractive real estate market for investors outside their home country, the survey showed. The country was seen as having the highest potential for return on investment.

Barclays Wealth surveyed 2,000 people. Forty per cent were worth £pounds;500,000 to £pounds;1 million.

An additional 40 per cent were worth between £pounds;1 million and £pounds;10 million. Ten per cent had assets of as much as £pounds;30 million and the rest were wealthier than that. -- Bloomberg

Source: Business Times, 1 Dec 2009

House prices fall 2.9% y-o-y in Nov: survey

(LONDON) The housing market in England and Wales strengthened modestly in November, with the smallest year-on-year drop in house prices since May 2008, a survey by property data company Hometrack showed yesterday.

House prices rose 0.2 per cent from last month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the fourth consecutive monthly rise, causing the annual decline in house prices to ease to 2.9 per cent from October's 4.2 per cent.

The average percentage of asking price achieved by sellers rose to 93.2 per cent from 92.9 per cent, its highest since March 2008, and the average time properties took to sell remained steady at an 18-month low of 8.4 weeks.

However, the number of new buyers grew by just 0.1 per cent in November versus 1.2 per cent in October - something which Hometrack said might not just be due to a seasonal pre-Christmas dip and pointed to limits on further house price rises.

'Further price rises could well result in an increase in the time to sell as stronger pricing meets greater resistance from would-be buyers whose numbers are also growing more slowly,' said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.

Moreover, the price rises were heavily concentrated in London and southeastern England, which reported price rises in 79 per cent and 57 per cent of post code areas compared to just 37 per cent on average nationally.

'The stark reality is that there are large swathes of the country where prices have remained unchanged or have seen continued price falls,' Mr Donnell said.

House prices rose in just 6 per cent of post code areas in northern England, the most depressed region.

Hometrack's survey was based on responses from 1,804 estate agents and surveyors. -- Reuters

Source: Business Times, 1 Dec 2009

Bankers drive up London luxury-home prices

(LONDON) Luxury-home prices in central London rose on an annual basis for the first time in 17 months as bank and hedge-fund executives bought houses and apartments in anticipation of bonuses, Knight Frank LLP said.

Values of properties costing more than £1 million (S$2.3 million) were 1.6 per cent higher last month than a year earlier, the first annual increase since June last year, the London-based broker said in an e-mailed statement over the weekend. Still, prices are 15 per cent below their peak in March last year.

'Anecdotal evidence from across our offices suggests that City money is becoming more apparent as we get closer to the end-of-year bonus season,' Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said in the statement. 'Demand from senior management is driving the market.'

Bonuses for financial-services employees in the City of London and Canary Wharf, the two largest financial districts, may rise 50 per cent this year to £6 billion, according to Knight Frank. Finance industry workers account for half the demand for luxury homes.

Prices rose 1.2 per cent last month from October, the eighth straight month-on-month increase, Knight Frank said. The most expensive homes didn't start recovering in value until May, the broker said.

While bonuses being paid by banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc are likely to help the housing market, the number of properties available will remain low, Louise Hewlett, managing director of London-based Ayslesford International said by e-mail.

'It is the shortage of supply which has given the rather false impression of a buoyant market,' said Ms Hewlett. 'In some instances, high prices have been paid purely based on the lack of choice and competition from other buyers.'

Prices increased the most among properties costing more than £10 million, gaining 1.9 per cent last month from a month earlier, Knight Frank said. Houses and apartments in Chelsea, Kensington and Knightsbridge, districts favoured by bankers, rose the most.

Luxury residences may return to peak prices in 2012, a year or two sooner than the rest of the UK housing market, Knight Frank and Savills plc estimate. The pound's 19 per cent decline against a basket of currencies since the home market's peak has revived demand from foreign investors.

Prices in Kensington and Knightsbridge may also have been boosted by Italian buyers benefiting from the combination of the weak pound against the euro and a tax-evasion amnesty in July, according to Savills. Italians accounted for almost half of European buyers of London property this year, compared with 20 per cent in 2008, Savills said.

'With stock levels still 25 per cent below normal at the current time and new buyer registrations up by 30 per cent on last year, the pressure on prices in the short term at least is likely to be upwards,' Mr Bailey said. -- Bloomberg

Source: Business Times, 1 Dec 2009

Asset bubbles all over Asia: UN economist

They may burst if short-term capital flowing in pulls out

GOVERNMENTS have been urged by a top United Nations economist to keep an eye on asset bubbles, which he says are appearing all over Asia as investors pour money into the rapidly recovering region.

UN Assistant Secretary-General Ajay Chhibber also cited the woes faced by Dubai, in the Middle East, as an example of how the underlying issues of the financial crisis had not been solved.

'I see bubbles in many, many Asian countries,' he said during a visit to Singapore yesterday.

He was speaking to reporters at a press conference at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies after releasing a UN Development Programme (UNDP) report on how the global financial crisis has affected the Asia- Pacific.

'The strengthening of the equity markets in most Asian countries is clearly a signal of fairly substantial inflow of capital coming in,' said Mr Chhibber, a former World Bank senior economist. 'It's Asia-wide, with some exceptions.'

While it is fine if the capital is used for long-term investments, the worrying thing is that some of the inflows are short term and volatile, he said.

Developed countries have relaxed their monetary policies in response to the recession, making liquidity readily available, but this means the money will quickly flow out again when these policies are eventually reversed.

Once the liquidity is withdrawn, the bubble may burst - similar to the situation in Dubai, where one of the government's flagship entities is threatening to default on US$59 billion (S$81 billion) of debt, Mr Chhibber said.

While the size of Dubai World's debt is 'not significant enough to have a major impact', the default is a signal that the underlying factors that caused the financial crisis have not been solved.

These problems have been temporarily papered over by the huge stimulus spending rolled out by governments, but how long that can continue is a question mark, he noted.

'The balance sheets are still heavily debt-laden, and therefore a small shift in expectations or investor sentiment can really turn things,' he said.

'When the tide starts to go out again, you will see where the rocks are.'

For Asia to remove those rocks and embark on a sustainable growth path, the region must undergo fundamental changes, said Mr Chhibber, who is also the director of the UNDP's regional bureau for Asia and the Pacific.

'If Asia wants this to be its century, it must more vigorously find an alternate development path away from its old export-led growth model.'

In introducing the UNDP report, which he co-authored with UNDP senior policy adviser T. Palanivel and Professor Jayati Ghosh of India's Jawaharlal Nehru University, Mr Chhibber laid out six areas where he said governments have to do more.

To tackle asset bubbles, they must put in place better tools to manage capital flows, he said. 'Property markets are also extremely frothy all across Asia but with capital which could easily reverse.'

Second, they have to rely less on export demand and develop greater domestic demand by spending more and encouraging households and businesses to do the same.

Governments should also invest more to make sure that poorer members of the population benefit from economic growth as well, so as to minimise the effects of income inequality, he said.

This ties in with the fourth aim of providing better social protection for the needy, with more government spending on health care and more extensive social insurance programmes, including pensions and unemployment insurance.

Cleaner and greener growth is a fifth area of focus. Even as developing countries power ahead, there needs to be a shift from heavy coal and oil usage to solar, nuclear and renewable energy, he added.

Lastly, intra-regional trade in Asia should be expanded, which would help smaller economies especially.

In Singapore, for instance, domestic demand can never hope to substitute for external markets, but Asean can provide a bigger market and a stronger economic base to help buffer external shocks.

Source: Straits Times, 1 Dec 2009

S'pore retail rents rank 18th highest

Asia-Pac retail sector recovering faster and better than expected

SINGAPORE has moved up a notch in property firm CB Richard Ellis' latest survey of the most expensive retail markets. Prime retail rents here were the 18th most expensive in the world in the third quarter of this year, up from 19th spot in Q2.

Orchard Central: One of the new malls completed in Singapore's prime shopping belt this year
New York, Hong Kong and Paris retained the top three positions.


Sydney overtook London as the fourth most expensive place to rent prime shop space, although this was due chiefly to the strengthening of the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar.

As a result of tougher trading conditions, gaps are appearing in some high streets and shopping centres as retailers consolidate networks or cease trading altogether, CBRE says in its latest Global MarketView on the retail sector. 'There is increasing differentiation between 'the best and the rest'.

The retail sector in the Asia-Pacific region is recovering faster and better than expected, as government programmes and strong economic growth in some markets help restore consumer confidence.

Hong Kong still ranks as the world's second most expensive retail rental market, with values of US$976 per square foot per annum.

'Prime retail rents vary significantly across the different Asian markets, but in Q3, retail rents in most cities either declined at a slower rate, stabilised or showed a slight up-tick,' CBRE says.

'However, the threat of supply-side risk remains significant in certain cities in mainland China, Singapore and India, where large amounts of shopping mall construction are expected to be delivered in the coming years.'

Knight Frank managing director and Singapore retail property veteran Danny Yeo noted that over the past six months, average rents for prime retail space in suburban malls have been more resilient, still managing to post low single-digit per cent increases as supply remains tight. Along Orchard Road, however, the opening of four new malls this year has put pressure on rentals.

'There's a window of opportunity, which is still open, for retailers to secure space at good rentals in the Orchard Road vicinity,' said Mr Yeo.

According to Knight Frank data, the stock of shop space in the Orchard Road area increased about 17 per cent in the first nine months of this year compared with end-2008 figures.

CBRE says New York's reign as the world's most expensive retail market continued in Q3 despite a 25 per cent drop in rental rates over the past 12 months. Prime New York retail rents ended Q3 at US$1,640 psf per annum.

The prime retail rents quoted by CBRE represent the typical 'achievable' open market headline rent that an international retail chain would be expected to pay for a ground-floor retail unit (either high street or shopping centre, depending on the market) of up to 200 sq metres (2,153 sq ft) of the highest quality and specifications and in the best location in a given market.

Source: Business Times, 1 Dec 2009

UK mortgage loans continue to rise

They reach the highest level since March 2008

(LONDON) UK mortgage approvals climbed in October to the highest level in one and a half years, adding to signs the economy is shaking off the recession.

Lenders granted 57,345 loans to buy homes, compared with 56,205 in September, the Bank of England said yesterday in London. The median of 22 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was 57,000. Net consumer lending fell by £579 million (S$1,548 million), the most since records began in 1993.

UK house prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in November as a shortage of homes sustained the property market, Hometrack Ltd said yesterday. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last week that the pace of economic growth may be 'pretty buoyant' in the short term even if the recovery isn't 'particularly strong'.

'We will see mortgage approvals continue to rise but not to anywhere near the sort of levels we saw pre-crisis,' George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, said before the report. 'The economy's recovery will be slow and steady to begin with but I'm not sure that's sustainable. We will see some bumps along the way.' The pound was little changed at US$1.6515 at 9:33 am in London. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond was also little changed at 3.52 perc ent.

Net mortgage lending rose by £922 million in October, compared with £898 million in the previous month, the central bank said. House prices increased 0.2 per cent in November, the same pace as in October, Hometrack said yesterday.

Rising unemployment may still curb house-price gains. Consumer confidence fell 4 points to minus 17 in November, GfK NOP said in a report yesterday . A gauge of whether people think this is a good time to make major purchases dropped seven points to minus 19.

Today's data suggested consumers are more reluctant to add to their debts, which now total an outstanding £1,458 million, down about £400 millionfrom September.

Net consumer credit fell as overdrafts and loans dropped 713 pounds, the most since records began in 1993. That offset a £134 million increase in credit-card lending, the Bank of England said. -- Bloomberg

Source: Business Times, 1 Dec 2009