Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Risk of bubbles in China, S’pore, HK: Goldman

China’s Dec property price surge steepest in 18 months

Real estate prices in China, Singapore and Hong Kong need monitoring for signs of bubbles forming as Asia continues to grow rapidly this year, said Fred Hu, Goldman Sach Group’s chairman of Greater China.

China, Singapore and Hong Kong need to be watched for asset bubbles, especially real estate prices, Mr Hu told a conference in Taipei yesterday. He also warned of inflationary pressures in China and said that China and India would lead the way in economic growth.

Home prices in Hong Kong are at their highest in 12 years, while residential and commercial real-estate prices in 70 cities in China climbed 7.8 per cent in December, the fastest pace in 18 months. In Singapore, a record number of private homes were sold last year.

China’s economy is overheating as asset bubbles and inflation pressures build, posing a ‘major risk’ to global growth, the World Economic Forum said on Jan 14.

Hong Kong residential property prices will rise about 5 per cent this year, Credit Suisse Group AG analysts led by Hong Kong- based Cusson Leung said last week. Prices of existing homes in Hong Kong, which rose 29 per cent last year, advanced further to reach their highest in almost 12 years as at Jan 10, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd, one of the city’s biggest.

Record-low mortgage costs, near-zero interest rates on savings deposits and buying from rich mainland Chinese stoked demand even as Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said on Jan 14 there is no ‘obvious bubble’ in the city’s property market.

In November, Mr Tsang had warned that asset prices in cities including Hong Kong and Singapore were ‘going up to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.’

To help ease a shortage of homes, Hong Kong will hold its third land auction in the current financial year next month, it said last Friday.

In China, property prices rose at the fastest pace in 18 months in December, with residential and commercial real-estate values in 70 cities climbing 7.8 per cent from a year earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission said last week.

To cool speculation, the government this month reimposed a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase, after cutting the taxable period to two years in January 2009 to bolster a market that was then flagging.

The central bank also raised lenders’ reserve requirements from yesterday, seeking to rein in liquidity from record lending without stalling a recovery.

A total 14,991 units were sold in 2009 in Singapore, according to Bloomberg calculations, beating the historical high of about 14,800 units set in 2007.

Source: Business Times, 19 Jan 2010

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