HK faces asset bubble risk: central bank

It attracted record HK$567.5 billion in fund inflows in the past 13 months

HONG KONG’S central bank chief Norman Chan warned that asset prices in the city could climb sharply next year and disconnect from fundamentals, raising the risk of a bubble, and said surging capital inflows posed a dilemma for policymakers across Asia.

‘With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals,’ Mr Chan, head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said in an article on its website.

While other economies could raise interest rates in a bid to curb inflation in assets such as property, that tactic could backfire and attract even more outside investors who are hungry for higher yields, Mr Chan noted.

Hong Kong faces a different challenge. Its currency peg to the US dollar forces it to track monetary policy in the United States, which is expected to keep rates low for some time.

The financial centre, a key gateway to mainland China, also prides itself on its open economy and thus would be unlikely to look at capital controls at this stage, analysts said. However, more measures to curb property speculation may be in the offing.

Emerging markets such as Brazil and Taiwan have both announced capital controls in recent weeks to keep what they say are ‘hot money’ speculative flows from fuelling sharp gains in their currencies and destabilising their recovering economies.

Russia said on Thursday it would consider ’soft’ measures to curb inflows, while Indonesia is also studying ways to control foreign investment in one-month central bank bonds.

Hong Kong attracted a record HK$567.5 billion (S$101.8 billion) in fund inflows between Oct 1 2008 and Nov 13, 2009, according to the HKMA. That has helped Hong Kong stock prices soar 57 per cent this year and property prices surge nearly 30 per cent.

Prices of luxury property in the city, however, have surged over 40 per cent this year as mainland Chinese have been snapping up apartments. A weak dollar and expectations that US, and therefore Hong Kong interest rates will stay low for some time are also encouraging foreigners to buy Hong Kong assets.

That prompted the HKMA last month to tighten mortgage lending rules, especially on luxury property, by capping the mortgage limit for property valued at US$2.6 million or more at 60 per cent, compared with 70 per cent previously. However, as many mainland Chinese buyers are flush with cash, that may not work.

The government has also said it is ready to release more land for sale to ward off a possible property bubble. This week it announced its first large-scale land sale in two years.

Mr Chan said it was not easy to say whether Hong Kong was now seeing an asset bubble but warned that values risked deviating from fundamentals.

Massive fund flows into the city’s banking system have put intense upward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, forcing the HKMA to intervene repeatedly to keep the currency within its trading band against the US dollar.

The HKMA has injected a record HK$620 billion since October 2008.

In nearby South Korea, officials have also warned of the risk of a housing bubble and have threatened to raise interest rates from a record low 2 per cent to calm prices.

Source: Business Times, 21 Nov 2009